Broken Bonds and World Economies

The current world is one in which lenders are actually paying large amounts of people to borrow money from them. On first glance this use of negative interest rates sounds like a terrific thing — debt caused by high interest rates remains a crushing force and notable source of human suffering. Upon closer look, however, the reason that lenders are actually paying people to borrow their money for a return is due to economic weakness and some pessimistic expectations that it’ll continue into the future. It is in some sense a major anticipation of a bleak future, and it’s related to what’s known as an inverted yield curve, a term that’s being used much more frequently in the news these days.

An inverted yield curve basically means that a long-term return (yield) on a bond is less than the short-term return. (This turns the supposed logic of the system on its head since we’d naturally expect someone who puts their money away for a longer period of time to be rewarded more.) It has long been a signal that a recession is coming, although the annual revision to the monthly jobs data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has historically tended to be a more reliable indicator of recession or economic weakness, and many news outlets don’t mention that historically an inverted yield curve has preceded a recession by about 22 months.

A recession is what many people rightfully understand as bad or at least not so good economic times, but the more technical definition is at least two consecutive quarters where the economy contracts rather than grows. More sensibly, a recession is a lack of demand (where demand is people’s ability to purchase goods and services), and the sensible governmental officials among us have for decades understood this and how to escape or mitigate recessions. It’s simple enough — if a recession is a lack of demand, demand must be boosted, such as through increasing government spending and/or cutting taxes. This creates more ability for people to make purchases, which has a positive effect on important economic indicators such as employment.

Accompanying the inverted yield curves of today is negative interest rates, something that has gone from — in the words of one commentator — a curiosity to a market mainstay. As even university business professors are admitting, this is a sign of something seriously wrong with the economies of the world. They are basically dysfunctional in some sense and seriously flawed to create such a structure. To keep economies moving along decently, interest rates now often have to be negative to keep enough money flowing in the system (in people’s pockets) and demand at somewhat acceptable levels. High interest rates are of course a problem for the burden they tend to cause the vast majority of people, but negative interest rates are an indication that the economies of the world have very fundamental problems.

The market structures of many world economies has been deliberately structured in ways that benefit the upper class at the expense of everyone else. The propaganda is regularly that inequality was caused by a natural outcome of the market, but that is the opposite of the truth. Policies such as rules on copyrights and patents aren’t the free market at work — they’re government intervention, aka structuring of the market. It is simple enough to prove in example after example how the markets were rigged to redistribute income upward and create unjust outcomes. Patents on goods such as prescription drugs increase their prices significantly, which takes too much money from the pockets of many people and redistributes it to the the upper class people who own stock in pharmaceutical companies. There is an immense barrier to entry for foreign doctors in the U.S. (one has to complete a U.S. residency program to practice medicine there), which pushes the wages of U.S. doctors to twice what doctors make in other countries and adds up to over $500 per family annually (while there is a shortage of doctors). Public pension funds in the U.S. have been structured to provide too many fees to high class managers. The list goes on — there are lots of ways that markets were deliberately structured against the benefit of the majority of the population.

What happens when too much money flows to the top is that the upper class — the now famous 1 percent — tend to spend much less of it as a percentage than the average person would. Saving money is to a significant extent a virtue, but what happens when the 1 percent (who spend less as a percentage of their income than working-class people) don’t spend all that money is that much of the money then sits idly, not purchasing goods or services and therefore not creating jobs. There is less demand in the economy this way, and the 1 percent benefiting from a market rigged in their favor means less money for everyone else to spend, and it of course creates the curious to mainstay phenomena such as negative interest rates.

It’s becoming more well-known all the time that the system isn’t right, and there are those that argue to reform it and those who argue that fundamental change is needed. The lack of real democracy in the economic system is an interesting note for countries such as the United States that supposedly value democracy so much. The economy is valuable to discuss in politics because it is fundamental and covers much of life, and its current indicators are revealing that it needs change that’s truly fundamental.