China May Lessen Its Currency Manipulation Soon

The Chinese currency management done over the past several years is a significant issue because it raises the U.S. trade deficit, and a higher U.S. trade deficit — as seen in recent years — means a contribution to a shortfall in U.S. economic demand. A considerable shortfall in economic demand has hurt the majority of U.S. workers, as it means the U.S. is importing too much and exporting too little. This policy actually matters quite a bit, as its macroeconomic implications effect the voting trends in the U.S. that then have an effect on world affairs.

A NYT article told readers that investors are worried because China may stop buying and could even start selling US Treasury bonds:

“Bond markets appeared to be further spooked on Wednesday by a report that China’s central bank, which owns $1.2 trillion in United States Treasury bonds, may be poised to slow or even halt its buying of United States debt. China has total reserves of just over $3 trillion.”

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While China’s decision to stop buying, and possibly start selling US Treasury bonds, is presented as a bad thing in this piece, it is exactly what anyone who had complained about China’s currency “manipulation” (e.g. Donald Trump) would want to see. This “manipulation” (which should more accurately be called “management” since it is entirely open) involved China’s government buying US government bonds and other assets in order to prop up the dollar against the yuan.

By buying dollar-based assets, instead of selling its dollars in international currency markets, China was increasing the demand for dollars, thereby pushing up its price. If it stops and reverses this process, it will be lowering the value of the dollar relative to the yuan. This will make goods and services in the United States more competitive internationally, thereby reducing the US trade deficit.

Rather than being a hostile gesture toward the United States, this is exactly what Trump claimed he was going to make China do in his campaign. He said that he would a take a tough line with China and make it end its currency management.

It is also worth noting that if the dollar declines in the months ahead it would be the exact opposite of what most economists (including the Trump administration’s economists) had predicted as the outcome from the tax cut. They had predicted a flood of foreign investment, which would have the effect of increasing the value of the dollar and the trade deficit.

Saving $1.5 Trillion Annually on Healthcare

Bringing the per capita costs of U.S. healthcare in line with other wealthy countries would save over a trillion dollars a year.

Austin Frakt and Aaron Carroll had an interesting Upshot piece in the NYT on why the U.S. spends twice as much per person as other wealthy countries for its health care. The piece cites research pointing out that people in the United States do not use more health care services than people in other countries. The reason that we pay more for health care is that actors in the industry, such as doctors, drug companies, insurers, and medical equipment manufacturers, get more money than their counterparts elsewhere.

The piece concludes by noting a couple of mechanisms for containing costs, but then argues:

“If attempted nationally, or even in a state, either of these would be met with resistance from all those who directly benefit from high prices, including physicians, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies — and pretty much every other provider of health care in the United States.

“Higher prices aren’t all bad for consumers. They probably lead to some increased innovation, which confers benefits to patients globally. Though it’s reasonable to push back on high health care prices, there may be a limit to how far we should.”

It’s striking to see economists reluctant to use mechanisms that would bring payments in the health care in line with payments in the rest of the world because they “would be met with resistance from all those who directly benefit from high prices.”

Efforts to reduce trade barriers that had the effect of destroying jobs and cutting pay for autoworkers, textile workers, and other manufacturing workers were also met with resistance. Economists not only supported these efforts, they treated them as an almost holy cause. They insisted on “free trade,” as the ultimate good.

For some reason, Frakt and Carroll believe that comparable efforts (we can also use trade in the health care sector to reduce costs) to reduce excess payments in the health care sector are a bad idea because the people who would see their pay and income reduced will be unhappy. In this context, it is probably worth mentioning that there is hugely more money at stake in bringing our health care costs in line with the rest of the world than with reducing trade barriers with items like steel and cars. The latter can save us at most a few tens of billions a year. If we paid the same amount per person for health care as people in Canada or Germany, the savings would be more than $1.5 trillion annually, more than $4,000 per person per year.